Ref: Monthly Rubber Stastical News August 2010 Vol — No –

Summary

As the price of natural rubber (RSS-4 grade) touched an all-time high of Rs.174 last week, Kerala’s rubber planters are agog with the prospect of more gains.

From a low of around Rs 25 a kg almost ten years ago, the price of natural rubber has soared the past month, as has the price of latex, which now commands a price of around Rs 120 a kg, compared to Rs 100 a month ago.

The recent price spike has been triggered by lowered stockpiles in China – the largest consumer and the world’s largest auto market – which, in turn, caused futures in Tokyo to climb to $3,231 a tonne.

Blame – or praise – the monsoon rains for this phenomenon.

As the heavy rains hamper rubber tapping – rainfall has also disrupted production in Thailand, the world’s biggest producer and exporter – demand for rubber remains while supply stays tight.

And yes, rubber planters can still go to sleep tight under their blankets since prices are forecast to rise.

According to commodity analysts, soaring oil prices and increased domestic demand from automobile manufacturers will continue to push prices upwards.

Wherever you place the blame – futures trading or unregulated imports –.the trend, experts say, is for rubber to reach a level of Rs 200-220/kg in the next quarter.

Will this price level hold? Remember, rubber is essentially elastic – what goes up must ultimately come down.

According to the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), global automobile manufacturers have scaled back production, cut jobs and closed factories due to declining demand, causing rubber futures to dip.

Rubber planters face a deadly combination – a worldwide economic slowdown, a deepening slump in the global automobile industry, and continuing low oil prices

As the fourth largest producer of natural rubber in the world, after Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, India, with a share of between eight and nine per cent of the world’s production, ought to be chary.

All the other rubber-growing giants are striving to increase productivity, but Kerala’s rubber planters are happy raking in the easy money. According to the Kerala State Planning Board’s Economic Review, the Stateaccounts for 81 per cent of the area under rubber in the country.

The coverage under the crop in 2008-09 was 5.17 lakh ha, higher by 5430 ha. over the previous year.

But productivity, which was 1,903 kg/hectare per year in 2008, dropped to 1,796 kg in 2009.

Unless Kerala’s rubber planters pull up their socks and tend to their plantations with the zeal displayed by their competitors in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, they cannot expect to ride the price tiger for long.

Courtesy : thehindubusinessline

Missing figure on Rubber Statistics

Analysis of Indian Rubber Statistics 2009-10

The following spread sheets are maintained in Google Docs.

• Daily Prices 2010-11 View
• Missing of Rubber   View
• Daily Prices 2009-10  View
• Comparison View
• Analisis of Natural Rubber 2009-10  View
• Details of Export 2006-07 (Received under RTI Act)  View
• Rubber Statistics from 1996 April onwards  View
• Analysis of natural Ruber 2008-09  View
• Supply & Demand 2007-08  View

Key Words: Natural, Rubber, Statistics, Price, Production, Consumption, Export, Import, Missing, Stock, Analysis

Ref: Monthly Rubber Stastical News August 2009 Vol 68 No 3

Summary

Purchase by Manufacturer = (Consumption + Monthend Stock) – (Openg Stock + Import)

= (871720 + 23015 + 16040) – (167120 + 77616) = 910775 – 244736 = 666039 Tonnes

Cess Collected = Rs. 103.91 crores for Quantity =692733 Tonnes at the rate of Rs. 1.5/kg

Purchase + Import = 666039 + 77616 = 743655 Tonnes & Cess = Rs. 111.55 crore

Evasion of cess = 111.55 – 103.91 = Rs. 7.64 crore

Monthly Rubber Statistical News Vol 67 No 12 May 2009 says that import was 81545 Tonnes and August 2009 says that import was 77616 Tonnes.

Comparison of production for the year 2008-09 with a farmer (without rain guard)