Natural Rubber 2009-10
Month	Production	Sale by Growers	Purchase by Manufacturers	Import	Consumption
April	51520	69955	64934	10421	73470
May	53550	51365	54467	19828	71250
June	54255	56540	58422	20258	74220
July	50250	52340	52070	27100	78910
August	64750	57605	63916	20119	79750
September	74300	68070	58973	20172	78765
October	88755	78950	71761	8574	77950
November	93500	83530	71216	7124	80500
December	100850	98860	75816	6504	80250
January	97500	64770	80455	7645	80500
February	51500	62770	65883	12167	76350
March	50650	67545	71648	10767	78650
TOTAL	831400	812300	789561	170679	930565

A COMPARISON

Comparison of production of a Farmer with the Statistics Published by RB
Month	Production Kg .8 Hectare	Production per hectare Kg	Tonnes from 463042 hectare	Published by RB in Tonnes
April	117.8	147.25	68183	51520
May	125.5	156.88	72640	53550
June	108.5	135.63	62800	54255
July	137.1	171.38	79354	50250
August	111.1	138.88	64305	64750
September	123.7	154.63	71598	74300
October	138.2	172.75	79991	88755
November	114.7	143.38	66389	93500
December	230.2	287.75	133240	100850
January	190.6	238.25	110320	97500
February	143.2	179	82885	51500
March	151.9	189.88	87920	50650
TOTAL	1692.5	2115.66	979623	831400

As the price of natural rubber (RSS-4 grade) touched an all-time high of Rs.174 last week, Kerala’s rubber planters are agog with the prospect of more gains.

From a low of around Rs 25 a kg almost ten years ago, the price of natural rubber has soared the past month, as has the price of latex, which now commands a price of around Rs 120 a kg, compared to Rs 100 a month ago.

The recent price spike has been triggered by lowered stockpiles in China – the largest consumer and the world’s largest auto market – which, in turn, caused futures in Tokyo to climb to $3,231 a tonne.

Blame – or praise – the monsoon rains for this phenomenon.

As the heavy rains hamper rubber tapping – rainfall has also disrupted production in Thailand, the world’s biggest producer and exporter – demand for rubber remains while supply stays tight.

And yes, rubber planters can still go to sleep tight under their blankets since prices are forecast to rise.

According to commodity analysts, soaring oil prices and increased domestic demand from automobile manufacturers will continue to push prices upwards.

Wherever you place the blame – futures trading or unregulated imports –.the trend, experts say, is for rubber to reach a level of Rs 200-220/kg in the next quarter.

Will this price level hold? Remember, rubber is essentially elastic – what goes up must ultimately come down.

According to the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), global automobile manufacturers have scaled back production, cut jobs and closed factories due to declining demand, causing rubber futures to dip.

Rubber planters face a deadly combination – a worldwide economic slowdown, a deepening slump in the global automobile industry, and continuing low oil prices

As the fourth largest producer of natural rubber in the world, after Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, India, with a share of between eight and nine per cent of the world’s production, ought to be chary.

All the other rubber-growing giants are striving to increase productivity, but Kerala’s rubber planters are happy raking in the easy money. According to the Kerala State Planning Board’s Economic Review, the Stateaccounts for 81 per cent of the area under rubber in the country.

The coverage under the crop in 2008-09 was 5.17 lakh ha, higher by 5430 ha. over the previous year.

But productivity, which was 1,903 kg/hectare per year in 2008, dropped to 1,796 kg in 2009.

Unless Kerala’s rubber planters pull up their socks and tend to their plantations with the zeal displayed by their competitors in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, they cannot expect to ride the price tiger for long.

Courtesy : thehindubusinessline

Missing figure on Rubber Statistics

Analysis of Indian Rubber Statistics 2009-10

Concern over climate impact on rubber output

Natural rubber is likely to rule dearer for some more time, but its long-term fortunes are dependant on the pace of global economic recovery, said Dr Stephen Evans, Secretary-General of International Rubber Study Group (IRSG).

In an interaction with the reporters on Friday, Dr Evans, who took over as the IRSG chief in January, said that boom in automobile sector across the globe especially in countries such as China and India augur well for natural rubber demand.

STIMULUS PACKAGE

But much depends on the Government stimulus packages which were boosting the auto sector across the globe.

The current auto boom could not be taken for granted and there can be overriding economic factors that decide the prospects of the industry and consequently the fortunes of rubber.

Dr Evans said that climate change and its impact on natural rubber production had emerged as a serious concern with the fall in production in most of the major rubber producing countries of late.

“As per a recent study, in Malaysia alone, climate vagaries have caused rubber yield to decline at least 3-4 per cent and enhanced the gestation period of new rubber plants from seven years to seven-and-half years,” he said, adding that this may be the general trend in all the rubber producing countries.

NO CLEAR INDICATION

He said that so far there was no clear indication that production of natural rubber has come down drastically due to the adverse impact of climate change.

The task force, constituted under the initiative of IRSG, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) for evaluating the specific impact of climate change on NR production, is expected to submit its report at the earliest.

Courtesy : Thehindubusinessline

Remarks by a Farmer: The climate change and less rain is favourable for rubber production. Periodical rain will fill the zylem and photosynthesis at leaves are higher than rainy/winter seasons. Thus the dry rubber content will be higher and tapping days can be increased. A comparitative study done by a farmer shows the production growth for the year 2009-10. After 20th of April 2010 the approximate statistics can be calculated by the Rubber Board. The speculations through the media is not correct with out any reality. When the prices are higher tapping days will increase and production also will increase. However Indian Rubber Board published the statistics for the year 2009-10 was far lower than real production. The publicity of last year by the Rubber Board was to increase production by  low frequency  tapping with the application of Ethephon. What hapened to it?

After winter new leaves are forming through the seasonal leaf fall. Thus the leaves are able to prepare carbohydrates on photosynthesis. Tapping can be continued in summer without the application of stimulent “Ethephon”. Low frequency tapping with the application of Ethephon is harmfull rubber trees, because nutrient mining from the bark will lead threes for TPD/Brownbast. A farmers experiences from 360 trees by 150 tapping days and 1,80,000 rupees income from the sale of dry rubber from first April 2009 to 31st March 2010 without rain guard.

An overall performance of World Rubber Production and Consumption have a growth with slight fluctuations, but a large scale fluctuation is visible on prices. The  price difference  between grades in lower and higher prices are the same. Thus when the prices comes down the adverse effects are more to farmers.

The following spread sheets are maintained in Google Docs.

• Daily Prices 2010-11 View
• Missing of Rubber   View
• Daily Prices 2009-10  View
• Comparison View
• Analisis of Natural Rubber 2009-10  View
• Details of Export 2006-07 (Received under RTI Act)  View
• Rubber Statistics from 1996 April onwards  View
• Analysis of natural Ruber 2008-09  View
• Supply & Demand 2007-08  View

Key Words: Natural, Rubber, Statistics, Price, Production, Consumption, Export, Import, Missing, Stock, Analysis