Ref: Monthly Rubber Stastical News August 2010 Vol — No –

Summary

Natural Rubber 2009-10
Month	Production	Sale by Growers	Purchase by Manufacturers	Import	Consumption
April	51520	69955	64934	10421	73470
May	53550	51365	54467	19828	71250
June	54255	56540	58422	20258	74220
July	50250	52340	52070	27100	78910
August	64750	57605	63916	20119	79750
September	74300	68070	58973	20172	78765
October	88755	78950	71761	8574	77950
November	93500	83530	71216	7124	80500
December	100850	98860	75816	6504	80250
January	97500	64770	80455	7645	80500
February	51500	62770	65883	12167	76350
March	50650	67545	71648	10767	78650
TOTAL	831400	812300	789561	170679	930565

A COMPARISON

Comparison of production of a Farmer with the Statistics Published by RB
Month	Production Kg .8 Hectare	Production per hectare Kg	Tonnes from 463042 hectare	Published by RB in Tonnes
April	117.8	147.25	68183	51520
May	125.5	156.88	72640	53550
June	108.5	135.63	62800	54255
July	137.1	171.38	79354	50250
August	111.1	138.88	64305	64750
September	123.7	154.63	71598	74300
October	138.2	172.75	79991	88755
November	114.7	143.38	66389	93500
December	230.2	287.75	133240	100850
January	190.6	238.25	110320	97500
February	143.2	179	82885	51500
March	151.9	189.88	87920	50650
TOTAL	1692.5	2115.66	979623	831400

As the price of natural rubber (RSS-4 grade) touched an all-time high of Rs.174 last week, Kerala’s rubber planters are agog with the prospect of more gains.

From a low of around Rs 25 a kg almost ten years ago, the price of natural rubber has soared the past month, as has the price of latex, which now commands a price of around Rs 120 a kg, compared to Rs 100 a month ago.

The recent price spike has been triggered by lowered stockpiles in China – the largest consumer and the world’s largest auto market – which, in turn, caused futures in Tokyo to climb to $3,231 a tonne.

Blame – or praise – the monsoon rains for this phenomenon.

As the heavy rains hamper rubber tapping – rainfall has also disrupted production in Thailand, the world’s biggest producer and exporter – demand for rubber remains while supply stays tight.

And yes, rubber planters can still go to sleep tight under their blankets since prices are forecast to rise.

According to commodity analysts, soaring oil prices and increased domestic demand from automobile manufacturers will continue to push prices upwards.

Wherever you place the blame – futures trading or unregulated imports –.the trend, experts say, is for rubber to reach a level of Rs 200-220/kg in the next quarter.

Will this price level hold? Remember, rubber is essentially elastic – what goes up must ultimately come down.

According to the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), global automobile manufacturers have scaled back production, cut jobs and closed factories due to declining demand, causing rubber futures to dip.

Rubber planters face a deadly combination – a worldwide economic slowdown, a deepening slump in the global automobile industry, and continuing low oil prices

As the fourth largest producer of natural rubber in the world, after Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, India, with a share of between eight and nine per cent of the world’s production, ought to be chary.

All the other rubber-growing giants are striving to increase productivity, but Kerala’s rubber planters are happy raking in the easy money. According to the Kerala State Planning Board’s Economic Review, the Stateaccounts for 81 per cent of the area under rubber in the country.

The coverage under the crop in 2008-09 was 5.17 lakh ha, higher by 5430 ha. over the previous year.

But productivity, which was 1,903 kg/hectare per year in 2008, dropped to 1,796 kg in 2009.

Unless Kerala’s rubber planters pull up their socks and tend to their plantations with the zeal displayed by their competitors in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, they cannot expect to ride the price tiger for long.

Courtesy : thehindubusinessline

Missing figure on Rubber Statistics

Analysis of Indian Rubber Statistics 2009-10

Demand-supply gap to widen as rubber output falls

The natural rubber (NR) output in 2009-10 dropped 3.8 per cent to 8,31,400 tonnes from 8,64,500 tonnes in the previous financial year. But, consumption rose 6.8 per cent to 9,30,565 tonnes from 8,71,720 tonnes in 2008-09, indicating a widening demand-supply gap.

According to the Rubber Board, the consumption increased due to a rise in demand from the tyre sector. While major companies like Ceat, JK and Bridgestone Tyres commissioned capacity-expansion plans last year, Birla, Apollo and TVS Sri Chakra Tyres installed new plants. The board said expansion might continue this year as well.

The board’s provisional estimates show the total rubber stock in the country as on March 31, 2010 was 2,48,000 tonnes, as against 1,96,230 tonnes the previous year. But, these figures are not in line with the reality of the local market facing shortage of the commodity. Local traders and farmers believes the stock is in the range of 1,25,000-1,50,000 tonnes.

Consequently, rubber imports also increased 118.7 per cent in 2009-10 to 1,70,048 tonnes, as against 77,762 tonnes the previous year. The increase in imports can be attributed to the price difference in the domestic and international markets. Global prices were lower by almost Rs 17-18 a kg than the domestic prices in the first half of financial year 2009-10.

Courtesty : Business Standard

Rubber output slips, consumption surges

Rubber production slipped 3.8 per cent during 2009-10 even as consumption surged. The industry is, however, relieved that the earlier deficit of over eight per cent in production has been partly made up during the lean wintering months. The very attractive prices in the market have resulted in extensive tapping even in the adverse weather situation, sources in the Rubber Board said.

Despite the fall in overall deficit during recent months, prices are likely to remain firm in the short to medium term, said Mr N. Radhakrishnan, former President of the Cochin Rubber Merchants Association. The prices are unlikely to rise further unless it is driven by global price surge or excessive speculative activity in the domestic market, he added.

Global trends

Global price trends were dictated by China, India and Malaysia which together account for more than 45 per cent of the global consumption of natural rubber. While these three are major consuming countries in the region, China and India are considered the pace setters of global demand and price trends.

During the first two months of the current year, import by China surged 63 per cent for natural rubber and 118 per cent for compound rubber. In Malaysia, import of natural rubber rose 34 per cent. During the same period, India posted a 17 per cent growth in consumption of natural rubber and over 100 per cent growth in imports.

The high production in India which was evident during the last couple of months continued in March with production growing to 50,650 tonnes from 48,300 tonnes last year. Meanwhile, fuelled by the growing installed capacity in the tyre industry, rubber consumption for the month grew to 79,500 tonnes (74,200 tonnes). The Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association has pointed out that the capacity in the tyre sector is poised to more than double in the year ahead and consumption will maintain its brisk pace.

Demand-supply gap

Provisional figures for 2009-10 show that production fell to 8,31,400 tonnes (8,64,500 tonnes). Meanwhile, consumption for the year accelerated 6.8 per cent to 9,30,565 tonnes (8,71,720 tonnes). The demand-supply gap has been met through surging imports.

Imports for March were up by over 50 per cent at 10,136 tonnes. But demand-supply deficit was more manifest in the imports for the year as a whole. Imports during 2009-10 were up 119 per cent at 1,70,048 tonnes (77,762 tonnes). The high level of imports was mainly on account of production shortfalls.

Although exports have more than doubled in March, overall export performance for the year as a whole has been lower. Exports fell by close to 50 per cent 23,764 tonnes (46,926 tonnes). Rubber stock continued to be the silver lining for industry. Stocks stood at 2,48,000 tonnes against 1,96,230 (the actual fig available on the image above) tonnes last year.

Courtesy : Thehindubusinessline

Analysis of Indian Rubber Statistics on spread sheets

The analysis of data provided in these spreadsheets are not availble in any other media. The higher stock with Growers are a lime lie on the higher prices in Domestic market. The -Ve missing is another lie by mathematical errors which means publishing higher stocks than real. When the prices are higher production will increase, because latex is getting through tapping. It is not like other crops which provides fruits, flowers etc.