As the price of natural rubber (RSS-4 grade) touched an all-time high of Rs.174 last week, Kerala’s rubber planters are agog with the prospect of more gains.

From a low of around Rs 25 a kg almost ten years ago, the price of natural rubber has soared the past month, as has the price of latex, which now commands a price of around Rs 120 a kg, compared to Rs 100 a month ago.

The recent price spike has been triggered by lowered stockpiles in China – the largest consumer and the world’s largest auto market – which, in turn, caused futures in Tokyo to climb to $3,231 a tonne.

Blame – or praise – the monsoon rains for this phenomenon.

As the heavy rains hamper rubber tapping – rainfall has also disrupted production in Thailand, the world’s biggest producer and exporter – demand for rubber remains while supply stays tight.

And yes, rubber planters can still go to sleep tight under their blankets since prices are forecast to rise.

According to commodity analysts, soaring oil prices and increased domestic demand from automobile manufacturers will continue to push prices upwards.

Wherever you place the blame – futures trading or unregulated imports –.the trend, experts say, is for rubber to reach a level of Rs 200-220/kg in the next quarter.

Will this price level hold? Remember, rubber is essentially elastic – what goes up must ultimately come down.

According to the International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), global automobile manufacturers have scaled back production, cut jobs and closed factories due to declining demand, causing rubber futures to dip.

Rubber planters face a deadly combination – a worldwide economic slowdown, a deepening slump in the global automobile industry, and continuing low oil prices

As the fourth largest producer of natural rubber in the world, after Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, India, with a share of between eight and nine per cent of the world’s production, ought to be chary.

All the other rubber-growing giants are striving to increase productivity, but Kerala’s rubber planters are happy raking in the easy money. According to the Kerala State Planning Board’s Economic Review, the Stateaccounts for 81 per cent of the area under rubber in the country.

The coverage under the crop in 2008-09 was 5.17 lakh ha, higher by 5430 ha. over the previous year.

But productivity, which was 1,903 kg/hectare per year in 2008, dropped to 1,796 kg in 2009.

Unless Kerala’s rubber planters pull up their socks and tend to their plantations with the zeal displayed by their competitors in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, they cannot expect to ride the price tiger for long.

Courtesy : thehindubusinessline

Missing figure on Rubber Statistics

Analysis of Indian Rubber Statistics 2009-10

Please help me to translate the Malayalam content to English.

What is the quality of Lalit Modi in front of Hon. Minister Dr. Tharoor?
Allegations Against Modi

* He operated as a ‘Super Chief Minister’ from the opulent Rambagh Palace Hotel
* Used his proximity to then CM Vasundhararaje to control key civil servants who would take files to his hotel suite
* Facilitated entry of big builders in the state. Every big land deal had to have his clearance.
* Influenced change in the liquor policy which led to the proliferation of liquor outlets. Became an election issue.
* Had a finger in every pie, including mines
* Personally acquired havelis in Amer by bending the law
* Has an extravagant lifestyle, owns a private jet. Would stay for days in the luxury suite of the Rambagh Palace Hotel.
* Influenced the enactment of the Rajasthan Sports Act to gain control over the Rajasthan Cricket Association (RCA)
* Accused of forging signature to become a member of the RCA
* Rode roughshod over anyone who crossed his path, whether it was a constable or an IPS officer. A slapping incident sparked a near-revolt in the Jaipur police.
* Was named in an FIR for misappropriation of RCA funds. The money has subsequently been deposited with the RCA.
* Convicted in the United States for possession of drugs and kidnapping in 1985
Read more>>>>
Shashi Tharoor’s return to India after a distinguished and celebrated career
When I turned on the television, when I refreshed my twitter or when I checked my BlackBerry Messenger, only one question seemed pertinent; do these people truly know Shashi Tharoor?

Over the months gone by, the Indian Union Minister of State for External Affairs, Dr. Shashi Tharoor has been repeatedly in the public eye, but hardly ever about his accomplishments and undertakings or his unrelenting efforts at building relations with foreign countries. If I defend him, it will appear partial and if I cringe at the horrendous allegations against him, it will be alleged that my judgement is clouded. Therefore, allow me to take you on a short journey as we delve into the life of Shashi Tharoor. It will allow you to decide who he really is.

Read More >>>>
The people of Trivandrum Parliment Constituency elected him as an MP.
Total Voters : 11,18,086
Total Poll : 7,34,924
Shashi Tharoor got : 326725 (Margin : 99998)
Adv. Ramachandran Nair got : 226727
Dr. Neelalohithdasan Nadar : 86233
P.K. Krishnadas : 84094
Did you think about how Dr. Tharoor got a good Margin?
* He conducted the election and met expences from his pocket
* His pomise after election he will be the representative of the entire people of Trivandrum beyond party politics (which he can’t maintain)
* His promis to allot a person who is non-politician at each assembly constotuency to hear the complaints of the public (Congress can’t permit)
* His promis for High Court Bench (he worked for this at his level best)
* His promis on Vizhinjam Port (State Govt. didn’t submited this to Central Govt. But by bringing Barzilona Team for further to do it)
* His stand against HARTHAL and BANDH which is against the development of the Constituency, State and for the Nation.
* His promis to build Trivandrum to International level (Twin City with Barzilona Failed due to the non co-operation of State Govt and Trivandrum Corporation)
* His knowledge in English and Hindi was capable to act an MP in the Parliment
* His tweets and site accesible to the public or to interact (non of the MP can’t do like this)
You can read more about the promises of Dr. Tharoor in Malayalam has so far maid, HERE >>>
The direct recruitment as MP above politics with the support of PM Manmohan Singh and Party Chief Sonia Gandhi. This is a reason of jelousy of few senior leaders. Left parties know that they lost Trivandrum Constituency for ever due to Dr. Tharoor. BJP had a highest Vote Bank in Kerala is Trivandrum which is going down. Thus they are against Dr. Tharoor. The educated people of Trivandrum will be always with Dr. Tharoor beyond party politics to get a mejority at any level or any party he is conducting. IPL Kochi got by the interest and initiative of Dr. Tharoor.

Concern over climate impact on rubber output

Natural rubber is likely to rule dearer for some more time, but its long-term fortunes are dependant on the pace of global economic recovery, said Dr Stephen Evans, Secretary-General of International Rubber Study Group (IRSG).

In an interaction with the reporters on Friday, Dr Evans, who took over as the IRSG chief in January, said that boom in automobile sector across the globe especially in countries such as China and India augur well for natural rubber demand.

STIMULUS PACKAGE

But much depends on the Government stimulus packages which were boosting the auto sector across the globe.

The current auto boom could not be taken for granted and there can be overriding economic factors that decide the prospects of the industry and consequently the fortunes of rubber.

Dr Evans said that climate change and its impact on natural rubber production had emerged as a serious concern with the fall in production in most of the major rubber producing countries of late.

“As per a recent study, in Malaysia alone, climate vagaries have caused rubber yield to decline at least 3-4 per cent and enhanced the gestation period of new rubber plants from seven years to seven-and-half years,” he said, adding that this may be the general trend in all the rubber producing countries.

NO CLEAR INDICATION

He said that so far there was no clear indication that production of natural rubber has come down drastically due to the adverse impact of climate change.

The task force, constituted under the initiative of IRSG, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) for evaluating the specific impact of climate change on NR production, is expected to submit its report at the earliest.

Courtesy : Thehindubusinessline

Remarks by a Farmer: The climate change and less rain is favourable for rubber production. Periodical rain will fill the zylem and photosynthesis at leaves are higher than rainy/winter seasons. Thus the dry rubber content will be higher and tapping days can be increased. A comparitative study done by a farmer shows the production growth for the year 2009-10. After 20th of April 2010 the approximate statistics can be calculated by the Rubber Board. The speculations through the media is not correct with out any reality. When the prices are higher tapping days will increase and production also will increase. However Indian Rubber Board published the statistics for the year 2009-10 was far lower than real production. The publicity of last year by the Rubber Board was to increase production by  low frequency  tapping with the application of Ethephon. What hapened to it?

After winter new leaves are forming through the seasonal leaf fall. Thus the leaves are able to prepare carbohydrates on photosynthesis. Tapping can be continued in summer without the application of stimulent “Ethephon”. Low frequency tapping with the application of Ethephon is harmfull rubber trees, because nutrient mining from the bark will lead threes for TPD/Brownbast. A farmers experiences from 360 trees by 150 tapping days and 1,80,000 rupees income from the sale of dry rubber from first April 2009 to 31st March 2010 without rain guard.

An overall performance of World Rubber Production and Consumption have a growth with slight fluctuations, but a large scale fluctuation is visible on prices. The  price difference  between grades in lower and higher prices are the same. Thus when the prices comes down the adverse effects are more to farmers.

Demand-supply gap to widen as rubber output falls

The natural rubber (NR) output in 2009-10 dropped 3.8 per cent to 8,31,400 tonnes from 8,64,500 tonnes in the previous financial year. But, consumption rose 6.8 per cent to 9,30,565 tonnes from 8,71,720 tonnes in 2008-09, indicating a widening demand-supply gap.

According to the Rubber Board, the consumption increased due to a rise in demand from the tyre sector. While major companies like Ceat, JK and Bridgestone Tyres commissioned capacity-expansion plans last year, Birla, Apollo and TVS Sri Chakra Tyres installed new plants. The board said expansion might continue this year as well.

The board’s provisional estimates show the total rubber stock in the country as on March 31, 2010 was 2,48,000 tonnes, as against 1,96,230 tonnes the previous year. But, these figures are not in line with the reality of the local market facing shortage of the commodity. Local traders and farmers believes the stock is in the range of 1,25,000-1,50,000 tonnes.

Consequently, rubber imports also increased 118.7 per cent in 2009-10 to 1,70,048 tonnes, as against 77,762 tonnes the previous year. The increase in imports can be attributed to the price difference in the domestic and international markets. Global prices were lower by almost Rs 17-18 a kg than the domestic prices in the first half of financial year 2009-10.

Courtesty : Business Standard

Rubber output slips, consumption surges

Rubber production slipped 3.8 per cent during 2009-10 even as consumption surged. The industry is, however, relieved that the earlier deficit of over eight per cent in production has been partly made up during the lean wintering months. The very attractive prices in the market have resulted in extensive tapping even in the adverse weather situation, sources in the Rubber Board said.

Despite the fall in overall deficit during recent months, prices are likely to remain firm in the short to medium term, said Mr N. Radhakrishnan, former President of the Cochin Rubber Merchants Association. The prices are unlikely to rise further unless it is driven by global price surge or excessive speculative activity in the domestic market, he added.

Global trends

Global price trends were dictated by China, India and Malaysia which together account for more than 45 per cent of the global consumption of natural rubber. While these three are major consuming countries in the region, China and India are considered the pace setters of global demand and price trends.

During the first two months of the current year, import by China surged 63 per cent for natural rubber and 118 per cent for compound rubber. In Malaysia, import of natural rubber rose 34 per cent. During the same period, India posted a 17 per cent growth in consumption of natural rubber and over 100 per cent growth in imports.

The high production in India which was evident during the last couple of months continued in March with production growing to 50,650 tonnes from 48,300 tonnes last year. Meanwhile, fuelled by the growing installed capacity in the tyre industry, rubber consumption for the month grew to 79,500 tonnes (74,200 tonnes). The Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association has pointed out that the capacity in the tyre sector is poised to more than double in the year ahead and consumption will maintain its brisk pace.

Demand-supply gap

Provisional figures for 2009-10 show that production fell to 8,31,400 tonnes (8,64,500 tonnes). Meanwhile, consumption for the year accelerated 6.8 per cent to 9,30,565 tonnes (8,71,720 tonnes). The demand-supply gap has been met through surging imports.

Imports for March were up by over 50 per cent at 10,136 tonnes. But demand-supply deficit was more manifest in the imports for the year as a whole. Imports during 2009-10 were up 119 per cent at 1,70,048 tonnes (77,762 tonnes). The high level of imports was mainly on account of production shortfalls.

Although exports have more than doubled in March, overall export performance for the year as a whole has been lower. Exports fell by close to 50 per cent 23,764 tonnes (46,926 tonnes). Rubber stock continued to be the silver lining for industry. Stocks stood at 2,48,000 tonnes against 1,96,230 (the actual fig available on the image above) tonnes last year.

Courtesy : Thehindubusinessline

Analysis of Indian Rubber Statistics on spread sheets

The analysis of data provided in these spreadsheets are not availble in any other media. The higher stock with Growers are a lime lie on the higher prices in Domestic market. The -Ve missing is another lie by mathematical errors which means publishing higher stocks than real. When the prices are higher production will increase, because latex is getting through tapping. It is not like other crops which provides fruits, flowers etc.