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മലയാളി വിഷന്‍

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Supply and Demand for the year 2006-07

Supply and Demand for the year 2006-07The media was not able to publish an analysis of supply and demand of natural rubber for the year 2006-07 like this blog post. During 2006-07 natural rubber production in the Country was 852,895 Tonnes and consumption was 820,305 Tonnes and opening balance stock as on 31st March 2006 was 93,020 Tonnes. It means India is self sufficient for the requirement of manufacturing sector. Was there any need to import 89,699 Tonnes and to export 56,545 Tonnes? Actually the export import is a game to reduce the International and Domestic prices. The analysis of statistics for the year 2006-07 is as follows in Table 1.

Sale by Growers = Opening Stock with growers OR previous month end Balance + Production – present month end stock with them. ( 22,125+ 84900)-53885 = 827,050 The total of monthly production as per monthly rubber statistics published by Rubber Board was 849,000 instead of 852,895.

Purchase by Manufacturers = Consumption + Balance Stock with manufacturers – Opening stock with them + Import. (820,305+ 70,480)- (49,990 + 89,699) = 751,096 Tonnes. The import as per monthly rubber statistics published earlier as provisional by Rubber Board was 88,040 and updated it as 89,699 Tonnes.

Table 1

Month O/S* with Growers Production Sale by Growers O/S* with Manufact- urers Purchase by Mfrs
April 22125 54555 59705 49990 54597
May 16975 56500 59070 44230 56106
June 14405 57610 61990 42030 57738
July 10025 65500 64125 40700 53955
August 11400 74495 74690 33255 64432
September 11205 73550 73870 29065 68262
October 10885 82970 77830 28630 69516
November 16025 95525 73460 30190 70103
December 38090 101680 80755 35270 67345
January 59015 96450 93390 45310 71384
February 62075 47560 55750 57610 56482
March 53885 42605 52415 64230 61176
TOTAL   849000 827050   751096

O/S* Opening Stock, A valuable correction on the purchase done by Sri K.Parameswaran Nair (Retd Dy tehsildar) on 6-10-07
The monthly export and import in detail as follows in Table 2. From Table 1 and Table 2 the analysis can be done during the peak production in India from October to January Import increased and purchase from the domestic market reduced. At the same time with a huge stock in Indian market from October to January the price of RSS 4 at Kottayam market was higher than International RSS 3. From this we can reach in to a conclusion that the Bulk Dealers and Manufacturers co-operation to reduce future price in both International and Domestic in future for a long duration with a high volatility in price. But it is failed in India due to hot summer, fever for work force, continuous rain are became reason for reduced production. The total export of 56,545 Tonnes carried out when the average Domestic price for RSS 4 was Rs. 9204/- per quintal and the import of 89,699 Tonnes carried out when the average International price for RSS 3 was Rs. 9779/- per quintal. And when we get the final result of export value will be below both these prices and the availed average import price is Rs. 8698/- per quintal. The month end stock with manufacturers as on 31st March 2007 was 70,480 Tonnes (Auto tyre units 55342 + Other manufacturing units 15138 Tonnes). It became a reason for the lower Domestic price from 9 to 12 rupees below International from April to June and 5 rupees in July 2007.

Table 2

Month Import Price International RSS 3 Export Price Domestic RSS 4
April 3493 9695 6031 8634
May 6699 10998 6801 9841
June 6517 12484 9901 10692
July 7245 11710 8456 9821
August 2693 10303 10226 9182
September 883 8480 6150 8169
October 1349 8463 2041 8709
November 5467 7426 954 8260
December 10920 7811 923 8615
January 10216 9319 624 9716
February 18853 10605 720 9757
March 15364 10050 3552 9057
TOTAL /Average 89699 9779 56379 9204

For more details Visit Supply & Demand on Microsoft Excel Worksheets.

When the production in India was sufficient a decision taken by the Minister of Commerce and Industry was to reduce the import duty and later it have been canceled.

Upasi opposes change in rubber import tariff

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