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Natural Rubber production on Dec 2007

Visits on this post as on 3-07-08. Indian Rubber Board is now spreading for sprayer and poisons to leaves to protect non seasonal leaf fall. Kill the soil and earthworms with the support of Rubber Board. Sorry, I can’t support Rubber Board for these kinds of activities.

Natural rubber production rose 10.1 per cent in December 2007 due to higher tapping, a senior Rubber Board official said on Thursday. Production in December was 112,000 tonnes, compared with 101,680 tonnes a year ago, the official, who did not want to be identified, told media.

How the Rubber Board official can predict the higher production within 10 days after December? This is to reduce price in market. But the month end stock may be higher due to Import and Christmas season (most of rubber growers will sell at that period).

Latest news:- Higher usage, lower output trim natural rubber surplus

A chart up to September High availability and sale, purchase, consumption are in a limit.

Production of Natural Rubber in India during August 2007 decreased to 60,850 tonnes compared to 74,495 tonnes during August 2006. The cumulative production during the first five months of the current fiscal year was 244,070 tonnes as against 308,660 tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year, recording a negative growth of 20.9%. The fall in production was due to heavy rain, scarcity of tappers in the rubber growing belts in Kerala caused by viral fever and abnormal leaf fall that affected about 50% of the rubber trees in Kerala. The production provisionally estimated for september’ 07 is 65,00 tonnes.

The total consumption for the first five months of the current year increased to 347,915 tonnes as against 334,400 tonnes during the same period last year, registering a growth of 4%. The growth in consumption in the auto tyre manufacturing sector during the first five months of the current year reflected a growth of 5.8% as against 3.4% achieved during the same period of the previous year. The increase in consumption due to the growth in production of truck/bus tyres and passenger car tyres.

The cumulative import of NR for the first five months was 34,194 tonnes as against 26,647 tonnes during the same period of the previous year. The total export of NR during April’07 to August’07 was 15,965 tonnes compared to 41,335 tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year. The stock of NR at the end of August’07 was 81,925 tonnes as against 165,190 tonnes at the end of March’07.

Ref. monthly rubber statistical news Vol 66 of October 2007.

The capability of production in Kerala will be less than previous year from September 2007 to March 2008. The reason mentioned in the above statement of Rubber Board due to abnormal leaf fall. The leaf fall may occur through the application of chemical fertilizers to grow fungal diseases. From my experiments on non seasonal leaf fall can be controlled by organic manure and the application of secondary nutrients to rubber estates. The availed excess rain in Kerala will be a reason for the higher temperature in December & January than previous year. When rain fall increases the lowest temperature will be high according to rain rate. Thus the production in December 2007 and January 2008 may be nearer to 80,000 tonnes/month. The large quantity of import by India will reflect in International market price. The sufficient production in the peak season can’t bring more month end stock than previous year without a heavy import.

The excess production of truck/bus tyres and passenger car tyres in the previous months will permit the manufacturers to stay away from market in the peak season to reduce price and they will wait for the lowest International price for import to India.

Buyers from the tyre industry have stayed away on expectations of further price fall, said Vibhu Ratandhara, an analyst with Bonanza Commodity Broker Pvt Ltd. In India, the tyre industry consumes more than half of total rubber output.

Stock of 1,42,440 tonnes till the end of November, it might not affect the availability. Imports from January till the end of November was at 1,01,937 tonnes. But the import during the corresponding period last year was only 38,685 tonnes. Though the export was expected to be 70,000 tonnes during the year, it might come down to 24,000 tonnes.

Chairman Rubber Board tried to show a heavy import by adding January, February and March 07 (10216, 18853 and 15344 Tonnes) and calculated from January to November through the media which is not published in monthly rubber statistics. Actually we have to calculate from first April 07. However now the International price is Rs. 20/Kg higher than last year on December which was Rs. 7811/quintal. In Indian accounts we are always following a financial year commencing from the month of April to the end of March.

“Import from Sept to Nov 07 was 23330 Tonnes (101937 – (34194 + 44413) = 23330 Tonnes) when the International and Domestic prices were approximately same. In December the burden of previous import loss fell on the shoulders of Indian Rubber Growers up to Rs. 7.25/Kg. The month end stock of Aug 07 was 81,925 tonnes and at the end of Nov 07 was 1,42,440 Tonnes and it means a growth of 60,525 Tonnes. ”

From the above points we can note that the lower price of natural rubber in India than International can’t go more less in the coming months in the view of a farmer. The Domestic price will go up due to Christmas to bring more stock to market to maintain a heavy month end stock of December.

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